here here

Thanks a lot Focker.

Those are just some thoughts which came to mind when i saw the post from Bailey about buying a bar.

Another new post here gives a good example of what can make or break a bar/restaurant too: swine flu!!!

Even if you're doing everything else right and have got that vital bit of luck, you can't account for a health scare like swine flu. Such far-reaching events happen suprisingly often and they can be the difference between a bar/restaurant staying open or closing.

Swine flu may well put people off going abroad on holidays. Just a few less tourists can make or break a place. No matter what best-laid business plans you have in place, it's unlikely that an outbreak of swine flu is factored in.

There are numerous factors like this which you can't account for in advance. It really is the 'butterfly flapping his wings in China causing an earthquake in Europe' effect.

You can't mitigate for events like swine flu pandemics, but any potential bar/restaurant owner should be aware of their exposure to them.

Read 'The Black Swan', by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, if you want a good background into randomness and unpredictability. It really puts 'How to start your own business' type of publications into context.

K.

Thankyou Kieron (and everyone else), I am still pondering and taking all of your good advice on board

Thanks again
Sarah